What is happening?

Over the past four years, coffee has been in a deficit, with no stock buffer in place. This has led to a 5 million sack shortage of raw coffee beans (with each sack containing 70 kilos of beans, which is a whopping 350,000,000 kilos overall)!

The increase in global demand for coffee has led to a situation where stored coffee beans are being sold faster than they can be harvested. As a result, the coffee in storage is not being replenished.

Of course, this has inevitably caused supply and demand issues, which has led to a price increase. Farmers are being paid more for their limited stock due to coffee suppliers needing the beans for their customers, which has caused a domino effect across the whole industry.

Why is there a coffee shortage?

The primary issue is that the arabica plant is highly sensitive to changes in temperature and rainfall. Of course, this is becoming more and more unpredictable due to climate change, which has significantly impacted this growing environment.

Extreme weather events, such as droughts and heavy rainfall, have also damaged the soil, further complicating the cultivation of this plant. This is also why there has been an increase in chocolate prices, as the cocoa plant also requires specific growing environments.

Unfortunately, this has hit Brazil the hardest, which has complicated everything, as it is by far the largest coffee-producing country, responsible for 39% of global coffee production. They produce an impressive 66.3 million sacks of green beans each year…

… and it doesn’t end there. While there would be enough coffee available from other origins, Brazil has been the primary source of this four-year coffee deficiency.

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How has Brazil impacted this shortage?

Previously, Brazil has had thousands of sacks in storage ready to go. However, an extreme frost followed by a wave of warm weather in 2024 caused the coffee plants to flower simultaneously rather than across a period of months.

While this issue may seem minor initially, the shortage of pickers has resulted in some cherries rotting before being harvested. The beans that were successfully harvested were shipped out immediately. However, due to a four-year deficit, no backup stock is available to compensate for this poor harvest.

The last time something like this happened was in 1977, after a devasting frost destroyed Brazil’s harvests. At this time, coffee surged to US $3.39 per lb of coffee. In 2025, this has arisen again, being $4.00 per lb, but is predicted to rise.

They aren’t the only area suffering; this has also affected Vietnam, which is the second-largest coffee producer. Destructive typhoons and droughts have damaged the coffee blossoms, leading to reduced crop production. So, overall, you can see why the coffee industry is in a bit of a pickle!

No quick fix

Unfortunately, this isn’t something that can be fixed overnight. Regulating the climate is impossible, and we have to sit tight and wait for this situation to pass, which is predicted to decrease by 30% by the end of 2025.

The light at the end of the tunnel

It’s not all doom and gloom. We are ready to tackle this issue straight on to make the best out of a bad situation. You won’t see us sourcing anything less than speciality graded coffee, and we won’t be reducing the amount of coffee you get in one of our pouches.

You don’t need to worry about your favourite coffee changing more frequently due to a shortage of beans. We carefully calculate how much coffee we need to order, ensuring our brews remain available for as long as possible. Wahoo!